Web Research
Web Research — What the Internet Knows
The Bottom Line from the Web
The single most important thing the web reveals — and that the filings don't say in plain language — is that Avation has been the target of an activist investor (Rangeley Capital LLC, acting in concert with Jeremy Raper), who built a stake of over 25% of the company specifically to close a wide gap between the share price and self-reported NAV. The second-most-important development: S&P upgraded Avation's issuer credit rating to 'B' from 'B-' on 11 November 2025, after Avation refinanced its US$298M unsecured notes due 2026 with US$300M of new notes maturing in 2031 — pushing the wall of debt out by five years and unlocking the current 25%-of-share-capital buyback authority. Together, these two facts reframe AVAP as a sub-scale lessor in active capital-return / corporate-action mode, not a quiet small-cap.
What Matters Most
S&P Issuer Rating
Rangeley/Raper Stake (%)
Buyback Authority (% of cap)
Target Lease Yield (%)
Net Debt / EBITDA (FY25)
Fleet (aircraft)
1. Activist investor controls a meaningful block — explicit goal: close the price-to-NAV gap
Rangeley Capital LLC and Jeremy M. K. Raper, acting in concert, hold ~14.90% of voting rights (per a 23 Dec 2024 RNS via Nasdaq/TipRanks), down marginally from a 15.11% peak. Raper acquired the original 19% block from Oceanwood Capital in late 2023 at 79p — a discount to the then-market price — and added more in the open market to reach over 25% before subsequent dilution from warrant exercises and treasury reductions. On a public podcast he stated his strategy is "less of a discussion, more of a dictation," and his goal is to maximise value for all shareholders. (Sources: nasdaq.com/articles/avation-plc-announces-change-major-shareholding; nodeepdives.substack.com/p/avation-plc-avap)
The substack write-up cites Avation's own self-reported NAV of 269p (June 30, 2023) versus a share price near 122p — a P/B of roughly 0.45x. Founder/Executive Chairman Jeff Chatfield publicly acknowledged in a May 2023 Bloomberg webinar that the company received an unsolicited acquisition proposal in 2019, and that he is "open to sell at the right price."
2. S&P credit upgrade and US$300M refinancing extends debt wall to 2031
On 11 November 2025, S&P assigned a 'B' long-term issue rating to Avation's new US$300M senior unsecured notes due 2031 and concurrently raised the issuer credit rating to 'B' from 'B-' with a stable outlook. The proceeds redeemed US$298M of senior unsecured notes due 2026 — extending Avation's longest-dated debt maturity by five years and removing the most pressing refinancing risk identified by the rating agency. (Sources: investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/avation–avap/credit-rating-s-p/9225792; theglobeandmail.com Tipranks 36063321)
Per Avation's FY2025 annual report, the weighted-average cost of total debt rose to 6.6% (from 6.4% the prior year) as cheaper secured loans rolled off and were replaced with higher-cost floating-rate debt and new unsecured notes. The maturity extension is unambiguously positive; the cost is the trade-off.
3. Live 25%-of-capital share buyback at a steep discount to self-reported NAV
Avation's AGM in late November 2025 authorised the company to repurchase up to 16,107,934 shares — 25% of issued share capital — until the next AGM. Most recent execution: 65,000 shares repurchased on 27 April 2026 at 136p. After the repurchase, 5,526,066 shares are held in treasury out of 66,835,066 issued (61,309,000 voting rights). A prior buyback campaign repurchased 7.8 million shares. With the share price trading well below management-stated NAV, every share repurchased is mechanically NAV-accretive. (Sources: investegate.co.uk; in.marketscreener.com; directorstalkinterviews.com/avation-concludes-share-buyback)
4. H1 FY2026 results: 100% fleet utilization, EBITDA up 30%, net debt down
H1 FY2026 (six months to 31 Dec 2025) reported on 26 Feb 2026: full fleet utilization, H1 revenue of $52.98M (vs $44.73M prior year, +18.5%), EBITDA $48.57M (+30.4% YoY per Motley Fool TTM data), and reduced net debt. Net Debt/EBITDA improved from 7.3x in 2024 to 5.7x by year-end 2025. Management cited "extended debt maturities following the successful refinancing of our unsecured debt obligations and continued demand for leased aircraft." (Sources: defenseworld.net; uk.advfn.com Avation half-year report; ainvest.com Edwin Foster)
5. Material discrepancy: web sources disagree sharply on intrinsic value
Third-party valuation sources arrive at wildly different fair values, reflecting how reliant the answer is on assumptions about lease residuals and aircraft values. Treat any single-model fair value with caution.
Range: from 156p (analyst consensus, light coverage) to 841p (Alpha Spread DCF base case), a 5.4× spread. The Peter Lynch screen returns a negative number because trailing EPS turned negative — useless mechanically, but informative about earnings quality. The clearest read: even the most conservative coverage analyst sees ~15% upside to ~156p, while bull cases see multiples of the current price if NAV is realised.
6. New non-executive director from BOC Aviation strengthens treasury bench
Peter Davis was appointed Non-Executive Director effective 26 February 2026 (concurrent with H1 FY26 results). Davis was Head of Treasury at BOC Aviation from 2008 to 2022 — a much larger investment-grade lessor with sophisticated capital-markets capability. The appointment looks deliberate given Avation's recent unsecured-bond refinancing and ongoing capital-return programme. (Source: uk.advfn.com Avation Directorate change)
A separate executive appointment in October 2024 added Gerry Butler as Head of Aircraft Trading and Capital Markets (Source: marketscreener.com).
7. FY2025 GAAP earnings deteriorated — loss after tax
FY2025 (year to 30 June 2025): operating profit was $46.4M (FY2024: $83.2M) and loss after tax was $7.7M (FY2024: profit of $19.7M). Year-end cash was $130.0M (FY2024: $117.9M). The headline cash and operating-profit numbers look weaker than FY2024 but per management commentary include impacts from refinancing-related expenses and aircraft trading timing. (Source: markets.ft.com/data/announce/full Avation Annual Financial Report)
Trailing-twelve-month EPS at the time of the Motley Fool snapshot was −$14.32 with a P/E of −9.43, and Simply Wall St calculates that Avation failed to grow EPS over the last three years (down 34% annualised). For a leveraged lessor, the GAAP loss largely reflects depreciation, refinancing costs and any aircraft impairments — but it does mean the equity story rests on cash generation and NAV, not earnings.
8. Industry tailwind: aircraft shortage and lease rates above long-term base values
The web research consistently describes 2026 as a favourable lessor environment. Morningstar DBRS published a 2026 Global Aircraft Leasing Sector Outlook titled "Cruising Altitude Reached" calling the operating environment positive. IQ-EQ's panel: "Over the past 18-24 months, lease rates and valuations have risen sharply, often to levels well above long-term base value assumptions." Coherent / Fortune Business Insights / Research and Markets variously project the global aircraft leasing market to reach $155-320 billion by 2030-2032 at CAGRs of 7.4%-9.0%. Top 10 lessors control 60% of leased fleets — concentration favours scale; sub-scale lessors like Avation face higher cost of capital. (Sources: dbrs.morningstar.com/research/469289; iqeq.com; fortunebusinessinsights.com; researchandmarkets.com)
9. Stock fell to a 52-week low of 123p on 1 April 2026 — sentiment weakened heading into the buyback
Despite the credit upgrade and active buyback, AVAP shares hit a new 52-week low of GBX 123.06 on 1 April 2026 (per The Cerbat Gem) and traded in a ~£91M market cap range. One-year return is −8.8% versus FTSE 100 +26% (Simply Wall St, 31 Dec 2025). TipRanks' "Spark" AI summary flags high leverage, negative profitability, weak technical momentum and a low dividend yield. GuruFocus flags 3 "severe" warning signs (specifics behind paywall).
10. Structural risk: AGM still authorises potential dilutive equity issuance
The substack analysis flags a worrisome line in Avation's AGM notice: "equity funding from the issue of new share capital in the Company remains an important component in funding the Company's growth." With shares trading well below NAV, issuing new equity at-market would mechanically destroy NAV per share — directly opposite to what the buyback is doing. Investors should monitor whether the board uses the share-issuance authority and at what price. (Source: nodeepdives.substack.com/p/avation-plc-avap)
Recent News Timeline
What the Specialists Asked
Insider Spotlight
Notable pattern: The largest "insider buyer" by far is the company itself. Founder-CEO Chatfield holds ~18-19% but his on-market dealings are dominated by warrant exercises (which the substack write-up flags as a slow-burn dilution lever). The single open-market director purchase was Mark Shelton's £1,983 buy — a small but unambiguous positive signal during a period of share-price weakness.
Industry Context
Three industry signals matter for AVAP specifically:
Lease rates are running above long-term base values. IQ-EQ's 2024 panel said: "Over the past 18-24 months, lease rates and valuations have risen sharply, often to levels well above long-term base value assumptions… the market remains far from equilibrium, with elevated demand colliding with constrained supply." Good for AVAP's lease yields and asset values — but signals that today's lease rates may not be cycle-average.
Sub-scale lessors face cost-of-capital headwinds. Per the AerCap CEO (Q3 FY23 earnings call cited in the substack analysis): "If you're a smaller lessor, you don't have that power. The cost of debt is going up. Maybe you need to go for below-market leasing. Spread is getting crunched. It's haves and have-nots." This is the single biggest structural reason an activist would push for a sale to a larger lessor.
ESG-linked financing is gaining traction. Avation already pioneered the world's first certified aircraft green loan (2019, Deutsche Bank, Braathens Regional). With sustainability-linked leases proliferating, Avation's modern A220 / NEO / ATR 72-600 (PW127-XT) orderbook positions it favourably for ESG-marked capital — a small but real edge.
All financial figures in USD ($) where reported by Avation; share prices in GBX (London pence) as quoted on LSE. Aircraft fleet count (33) as of 30 June 2025.